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It comes down to one game, the matchup between the Chiefs and Bucs as the NFL gets set to crown the champion of the 2020-21 NFL season. Will it be a repeat for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? Or will it be an incredible 7th Super Bowl win for Tom Brady and a second for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers franchise?

Moneyline bets are one of the most common ways to bet on sports. Betting on the money line means you’re betting on one team to win the game. What makes the money line unique is that the casino offers odds on each team based on their chances of winning. You’ve probably seen betting lines that look something like: New York Mets -130. Buccaneers: Super Bowl 2021 Best Moneyline Pick. Nikki Adams; Feb 3, 2021 at 9:20am CST. 5 min read. Depending on your choice betting site, the Chiefs are currently trading.

The anticipation is palpable…

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, February 07, 2021 – 06:30 PM EST at Raymond James Stadium

Before turning to the pressing business of predicting the winner of SBLV, let’s just take a moment to savour the fact that the league has actually reached this point at all. With nary a hiccup too, mind you. When the season got underway back in September in the midst of a global pandemic that disrupted training camps, preseason games, and all manner of team interaction, understandably there was an air of cautious optimism. The NFL was getting underway, but no guarantees could be given that the regular season would be completed in its entirety, never mind contemplating the playoffs and Super Bowl 55 going to plan.

Fast forward through five months of rip-roaring action, weeks of scintillating football games being played (in most cases) to largely empty stadiums around the country and… amazingly, delightfully, ecstatically…. the league has arrived to destination Super Bowl 55 in Tampa, Florida. Like a Hollywood movie, the protagonists couldn’t have been any better than had the league handpicked them. A Super Bowl billing between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady is a quarterback battle for the ages – one that if it lives up to the hype and buzz is sure to be a right cracker and – dare it be said – a total tossup for NFL picks.

That’s not how sportsbooks are calling it though, as the Kansas City Chiefs emerge as the firm road faves to win in straight up betting markets. Depending on your choice betting site, the Chiefs are currently trading anywhere between -165 to -170 to lift the Lombardy Trophy. On the flipside, the Buccaneers are tipped as the considerable home underdogs priced anywhere between +145 and +150 to pull off the upset.

Contrary to this market stance, the betting is split down the middle with action coming down the wire on both sides of the coin in equal measure. At the time of writing (Tuesday, February 2,), the Chiefs and Bucs have 50% of the tickets apiece. If that’s not an indication that the public at least considers this game to be a coin-flip, what is?

Are the Bucs Underrated at the Expense of the Chiefs?

Without a doubt, the Chiefs are the team to beat going into Super Bowl LV. They’re a well-oiled machine that has made a habit of winning since Patrick Mahomes took over the reins from Alex Smith in 2018. His first two years were a magic carpet ride with first an AFC Championship appearance in 2018 and then winning SBLIV a year later. What Mahomes accomplished in his short career is certainly impossible to overlook, and that very fact is partly why the Chiefs are widely expected to come up trumps on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium.

Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady have split their four career meetings evenly, 2-2 SU, but Patrick Mahomes owns the “W” in the last two. Mahomes beat Tom Brady in his last season with the Patriots during the regular season, and he beat Brady in his first season with the Bucs during the regular season 27-24 at Raymond James Stadium. However, it’s worth pointing out one interesting trend here: the team that has won in the regular season is 6-7 SU in a Super Bowl rematch.

Ever since Tom Brady made the move out of New England and signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, betting sites elevated Tampa Bay’s odds in Super Bowl 55 betting markets, moving them into top contention – a position that was as foreign as winning itself was. In 2019, Tampa Bay finished 7-9 SU in Bruce Arians first season with the organization. They were 5-11 the two years prior. Heck, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ combined record is under .500. over the last decade in the NFL. But lo and behold, they’re Super Bowl bound in 2020, and there’s no mystery why that’s the case. Two words: Tom Brady.

Bruce Arians himself acknowledged that it took “one man to turn around the organization overnight from the league’s punching bag to a Super Bowl contender. The remarkable turnaround is the single most underrated achievement by the current Super Bowl betting market as it were. Not even Joe Montana did what Tom Brady has done in his second act.

Brady’s achievement is made all the more splendid, inspirational, courageous, breath-taking…there’s no end to the hyperbole one could trot out on this occasion… for the simple fact that he, at 43 years of age, defied his critics and naysayers that were all too eager to write him off in his new adventure. Even suggesting it would be impossible for Brady to enjoy a fraction of the success he had with the New England Patriots, as if he were half the man without Bill Belichick at his side.

Tale told, Brady put paid on his critics and turned preconceived notions upside down by leading the Buccaneers to Super Bowl 55. If he can go one better and beat the highly-fancied Kansas City Chiefs, it would be an amazing victory. Perhaps, his greatest Super Bowl victory of all.

NFL Betting Predictions and Picks

Across the board, sports media writers, pundits, armchair critics appear to be cornering their Super Bowl pick with the Kansas City Chiefs. While it’s understandable why many would lean towards the Chiefs, it’s surprising to discover that finding a pick that serves up the Buccaneers to upset the Chiefs is like looking for a needle in the haystack. In the interest of symmetry and... to play a bit of devil’s advocate – maybe it’s time an NFL betting article goes boldly where few have gone before…

Betting the Chiefs is a sound bet, one that is impossible to argue with it at all. Bettors could do no worse than bet the Chiefs to win. However, Tom Brady has won more championship titles in his career than any other player or team in the league. In one year – a pandemic induced year, mind you – he singlehandedly turned around a franchise and led it to SBLV. That’s just bonkers. If that’s not an indication that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are dangerous floaters in this game, what is?

Put it simply, if the team is buying what Tom Brady is selling, shouldn’t everyone?

NFL Pick:Buccaneers +150 with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

It’s easy to feel overwhelmed by the hundreds of prop bets that are available to wager on for each year’s Super Bowl. Remember, you don’t have to bet on everything (in fact, please don’t). Instead, it’s best practice to pick and choose your spots when it comes to Big Game betting.

Here, the experts at TheLines will show you their betslips for Super Bowl LV, with their best bets to wager on a $50 budget.

Super Bowl LV odds

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Brett Collson – Content Director

The two high-profile QBs will – of course – get most of the attention at the books, so let’s go digging for some potential market inefficiencies in some of these smaller props markets.

So much is made of Patrick Mahomes’ vertical passing game – and for good reason. But the Chiefs can adjust to any defensive scheme thrown their way, and I expect Bucs DC Todd Bowles to try to keep everything in front of his defense by dropping two safeties deep as he did in Week 12 against KC. This could open things up for Chiefs receivers underneath, resulting in more targets being spread out to pass catchers. The market has priced up the Overs on Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, so I’m looking for value on Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins on short routes and even some screens to boost their reception totals. And if Watkins’ status doesn’t look good for Sunday, I’ll replace him with some Byron Pringle overs.

If that gameplan comes to fruition, the Chiefs could use their short passing game as an extension of the ground game, as they did in the first meeting. Why hand off against one of the league’s top rush defenses? I don’t see Darrel Williams having much of a role on the ground here. Give me the Under on Williams’ rushing yards.

Finally, Super Bowl MVP. Is there a path to a Chiefs victory without Mahomes winning MVP? He didn’t even play well for three quarters last year and still got the votes. I like the Chiefs to win, and for Mahomes to get the honor for the second straight year.

Betslip

• Chiefs moneyline (-159 at DraftKings): $15
• Patrick Mahomes MVP (+100 at BetMGM): $15
• Mecole Hardman over 28.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel): $5
• Mecole Hardman over 2.5 receptions (+115 at DraftKings): $5
• Sammy Watkins over 3.5 receptions (+125 at BetMGM): $5
• Darrel Williams under 30.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings): $5
• Potential payout: $95.33

Matt Brown – Host of TheLines Podcast

One of the best things about the 2021 Super Bowl betting season in the US is the battle for our business. Bonus offers abound, and that’s where we’ll start spending our $50 bankroll. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering up a massive 55/1 moneyline odds boost for either team. It’s a $5 maximum bet, but you can turn that 5 bucks into $275 should your team win. I’ll drop the $5 on the Chiefs.

I’m on the Chiefs. I have a big position on them at -3 and will be taking the moneyline as we move closer to game time (value on the moneyline favorite shows late as casual bettors opt for the plus money on the underdog). But I also think this game has a better-than-average chance of the Chiefs winning by double digits. For my next play, I’ll put $20 on the Chiefs (-9.5) alt line at (+235) over at DraftKings Sportsbook. If the 9.5 seems like a little too much, you can play (-6.5) at +165 where a touchdown win by the Chiefs cashes the ticket.

I expect the Bucs to put some points on the board, even though I think the Chiefs win the game. When they get into the red zone of late, they’ve been utilizing Leonard Fournette not only in the run game, but the pass game as well. BetMGM Sportsbook is offering a “Losecast” bet found under the “Player TDs” tab. I’m going to drop $15 on “Leonard Fournette to score and Bucs to lose” at +200. Fournette’s “Anytime TD” prop line is +120, so I’m getting 80 additional cents for the game to play out like I think it will.

My final bet is another plus money opportunity. I’ll put my last $10 on the Over 0.5 rush yards for Tom Brady at +145 at BetMGM. Brady is the best quarterback sneaker of all-time. This game will call for aggression if the Bucs are going to be able to hang with the Chiefs. Any 3rd-and-1 or 4th-and-1 situation will be prime opportunity for us to get the 1 rush yard we need to cash this ticket. Again, I think the Chiefs win, so I’m not worried about Brady losing any yardage on a kneeldown.

Betslip

• 55/1 Chiefs moneyline odds boost bonus (+5500 at FanDuel): $5
• Chiefs alt line, -9.5 (+235 at DraftKings): $20
• Leonard Fournette to score and Bucs to lose (+200 at BetMGM): $15
• Over 0.5 rush yards for Tom Brady (+145 at BetMGM): $10
• Potential payout: $416.50

Matt Burke – Managing Editor

I’m not too confident the Bucs can win, but I am confident they can keep it to within a field goal. Winning by a sizable margin over a Tom Brady-led team is one difficult task, and Brady’s uncanny ability to keep the game close has carried over from New England to Tampa. Excluding the two regular season losses to the Saints (which Tampa Bay eventually avenged in the postseason), the Bucs’ other defeats in 2020-21 came by final scores that looked like this: 20-19 (at Chicago), 27-24 (vs. Rams), 27-24 (vs. Chiefs). So give me $20 on Tampa +3.

As for the prop bets in this game, there are some under-the-radar options that I think could cash.

FanDuel Sportsbook is running a “Last Play Of The Game To Be A QB Kneel” prop. “Yes” is -180, “No” is +140. Last year’s Super Bowl ended with Patrick Mahomes taking a knee, and the year prior it was Tom Brady running out the final seconds. Here’s $10 that says one of them will do it again to close out the game on Sunday.

FD also has a prop on the result of Brady’s first pass, -185 for complete and +145 for incomplete or intercepted. Most every NFL team scripts their entire first drive, or at least the first few plays. And these are typically plays that each team has the utmost confidence in. Brady completed his first throw in the NFC title game, and in the Divisional Round. Mr. Perfect will want to be perfect out of the gate once again.

The last prop I’ll look at here is the old Gatorade bath color deal. The Chiefs dumped orange on Andy Reid last year, and orange is the most popular Gatorade dump color of all-time. Orange is also the original color of the Buccaneers, going back to those awesome creamsicle uniforms – adding to the reasons that orange is again the favorite. But I think the play here is actually “red,” which is the primary uniform color of both the Chiefs and the Bucs. You can get that at +300 at FanDuel.

Betslip

• Buccaneers spread +3 (-106 at DraftKings): $20
• Last Play QB Kneel (Yes, -180 at FanDuel): $10
• Brady’s first pass complete (Yes, -185 at FanDuel): $10
• Gatorade bath color (Red, +300 at FanDuel): $10
• Potential payout: $109.84

ALSO READ: 5 Fun Super Bowl props to wager on this Sunday

Brett Gibbons – Editor and contributing writer

To maximize payout on player prop picks, I decided to parlay them. Sammy Watkins is “feeling better,” but is “still working out with the training staff” with a calf injury. Betting the Under on Watkins’ receiving yards isn’t saying he won’t play, it’s saying that even if he does a calf injury could limit his snaps and production. In 40% of his games this season, Watkins failed to reach 36.5 receiving yards.

Rob Gronkowski, though well past his prime, has been a Super Bowl favorite of Tom Brady’s since 2011. In four Super Bowl appearances, Gronk has been held under 50 receiving yards just once – Super Bowl XLVI where he was injured early in the game.

Finally, +101 on Under 40.5 pass attempts by Patrick Mahomes is a steal, as Mahomes has thrown over 40 times in a postseason game just twice (in seven playoff games).

Ultimately, I chose the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win this game outright, though this one is a double-edged sword. On one hand it’s foolish to bet against Mahomes, but on the other – it’s equally foolish to bet against Brady in the Super Bowl. It came down to two factors: it’s extremely difficult to repeat as Super Bowl champion and Brady’s motivation to win may be the highest of any player ever. The new guard will establish itself, but the old guard has one more thing to say about it before they do.

Betslip

• Sammy Watkins Under 36.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel) – Parlay: $30*
• Rob Gronkowski Over 26.5 receiving yards (-115 at FanDuel) – Parlay*
• Patrick Mahomes Under 40.5 pass attempts (+101 at FanDuel) – Parlay*
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers moneyline (+145 at FanDuel): $20
• Potential payout: $234.22

Nate Weitzer – Contributing writer

While there are myriad options to bet on Super Bowl LV, I would put the bulk of my $50 on the simple pick of taking the Chiefs to cover a 3-point spread. Tom Brady is getting too much credit based on reputation and Andy Reid is 23-5 after a bye week (including playoffs).

With $20 of the $50 on the spread, I’d diversify by putting $10 on the Chiefs as First to 25 points (-130 at DraftKings Sportsbook) – a great way to move their team total (29.5) down a few points.

I also like the Chiefs to convert Over 5.5 third downs since they converted 49.5% of third downs this season and are up to 50.4% in the playoffs.

With a few dollars left over, I’d roll out a couple of Player Props and Novelty Props for fun. Mecole Hardman should top 2.5 receptions with Sammy Watkins (calf) and DeMarcus Robinson (COVID) likely out or limited. I also like Chris Godwin to top 77.5 receiving yards and/or 5.5 receptions in what should be a comeback bid from the Bucs. My favorite fringe props are the Bucs to go Under 3.5 punts due to their aggressive approach, and the Super Bowl to see Over 1.5 Coaches Challenges (+220 at DK).

Betslip

• Chiefs spread -3 (-117 at FanDuel): $20
• Chiefs Over 5.5 Third Down Conversions (-115 at DraftKings): $10
• Chiefs First to 25 points (-130 at DraftKings): $10
• Chris Godwin Over 5.5 receptions (-125 at DraftKings): $5
• Over 1.5 Coaches Challenges (+220 at DraftKings): $5
• Potential payout: $98.50

‘Fairway Jay’ Ginsbach – Contributing writer

Starting with FanDuel Sportsbook’s 55/1 moneyline odds boost on either team, here is how to bet $50 on the Super Bowl.

FD’s odds boost is a $5 maximum bet, but you can turn that 5 bucks into $275 should your team win. I’ll take the Kansas City Chiefs.

Normally I’ll look towards the better defense and running game of the Buccaneers, especially with the Chiefs missing a pair of offensive tackles. Tampa Bay has also made defensive adjustments since the 27-24 Week 12 loss to the Chiefs with more 2-man coverage and disguised schemes to add to their Cover 1 and Cover 3. Along with a top pair of linebackers, and CB Jamel Dean back after missing the Week 12 contest, I still look Kansas City’s way. Too much offensive firepower and weapons, pre-snap motion and speed to offset the Bucs defense. Better coaching and preparation, today’s top QB versus a 43-year-old GOAT, and a Chiefs defense that is better than given credit for.

The Bucs were fairly fortunate to win their two recent playoff games, and the Week 12 result was much more one-sided for the Chiefs than the final score. Mahomes is likely passing 40-plus times again in victory – unless he gets knocked out of the game like he did in the playoff game vs. the Browns.

On the player props plays, note that Antonio Brown missed the NFC Championship game (knee), but is on track to play in the Super Bowl. Brown’s playoff production against the Saints was just 1 catch for 10 yards, though he did leave early due to injury. The previous playoff game he caught 2 passes for 49 yards and a touchdown against Washington. Brady has not looked his way as a primary receiver. Brown was also targeted just 3 times and had 2 receptions for 11 yards in the Bucs 27-24 Week 12 loss to the Chiefs. The potential knee issue and flare up could be more problematic than Buccaneers are letting on heading into the Super Bowl. I still don’t see Brown being a top target, with leading receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin a primary focus for Brady.

Betslip

• 55/1 Chiefs moneyline odds boost bonus (+5500 at FanDuel): $5
• Chiefs alternate line, -6.5 (+165 at DraftKings): $10
• Bucs WR Antonio Brown under 41.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel) $25
• Bucs WR Antonio Brown under 3.5 receptions (-106, at FanDuel): $10
• Potential payout: $373.66

Esten McLaren – Contributing writer

Most of the betting action at the top US sportsbooks is on the Chiefs to cover and the Over. With a Super Bowl LV betting budget of $50, I’ll try to maximize the value. A simple same-game parlay might be the best route to go, so I’ll put $20 on the Chiefs -3 and Over 55.5 to better than double-up the investment.

For the remaining $30, I’ll look to the player props.

Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski is an intriguing play to be his team’s first touchdown scorer (+900 at BetMGM). Tom Brady will likely be looking to his most familiar option while others are dealing with early jitters in their first Super Bowl appearances.

For the next $10, I’ll go with Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman for an anytime TD (+220 at DraftKings). Hardman can get the ball in his hands as a receiver, as a trick-play threat out of the backfield, or on punt returns.

Moneyline Bet Explained

And I’ll split the remaining $10 on two separate longshot bets for Super Bowl MVP. I’m backing Chiefs S Tyrann Mathieu (+4000 at DraftKings) and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+2800) for profits of $200 or $140, respectively.

Betslip

Moneyline Bet - How To Bet The Moneyline With Examples

• Chiefs spread -3 (-115) + Over 55.5 (-113 at FOX Bet): $20
• Rob Gronkowski first Bucs TD (+900 at BetMGM): $10
• Mecole Hardman anytime TD (+220 at DraftKings): $10
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire MVP (+2800 at DraftKings): $5
• Tyrann Mathieu MVP (+4000 at DraftKings): $5
• Potential payout: $404

Juan Carlos Blanco – Contributing writer

The quarterbacks will undoubtedly take center stage Sunday, and given the elite run defense of the Buccaneers and my belief the Chiefs will prevail in a relatively close game, I would invest $30 in a Patrick Mahomes to throw for 300 or more yards and the Chiefs to win prop at +150 at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bucs allowed a robust 283.8 passing yards per game, along with an NFL-high 71.2% completion rate, at Raymond James Stadium this past regular season. Tampa Bay also surrendered an NFL-low 81.4 rushing yards per contest and 3.4 yards per carry to running backs, leading teams to pass against them at an NFL-high 65.4% rate. Given KC is already passing at a rate of 61.8% this season/postseason and Mahomes torched the Bucs for 462 yards and three TDs in Week 12, I like the chances of this prop cashing.

I’d take $10 of the remaining $20 on the Over on 3.5 receptions for Leonard Fournette (-140 at PointsBet). The Chiefs allowed 93 receptions to running backs this past regular season, the third-highest figure in the NFL. Fournette has offered a reminder of how good a receiver he is this postseason, bringing in 14 of 17 targets (at least four catches each contest) during that span. Fournette also recorded 36 receptions (47 targets) in 13 regular season games despite often filling a complementary role, and with KC allowing just a 59.7% catch rate to receivers this season, Tom Brady could frequently turn to Fournette as an alternative.

Finally, I’d take the remaining $10 and roll with a Big Game Parlay at William Hill, paying out at +150 if Tyreek Hill records at least 80 receiving yards and scores more than one touchdown. Hill memorably trampled the Bucs for seven receptions, 203 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter alone back in Week 12 and finished the game with 13 catches for 269 yards and three scores. He recorded 17 total touchdowns in 15 games during the regular season and saw 21 red-zone targets during that span as well. Tampa Bay also gave up a 68.4% catch rate and 170.8 yards per game to receivers this season and ranks in the bottom half of the league with a 62.3% TD red-zone success rate, while Hill notched multiple TDs in four games this season.

Betslip

• Patrick Mahomes to throw for 300+ yards and Chiefs to win (+150 at DraftKings): $30
• Leonard Fournette Over 3.5 receptions (-140 at PointsBet): $10
• Tyreek Hill to record at least 80 receiving yards and 1+ TD (+150 at William Hill): $10
• Potential payout: $117.14

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